Cognitive Bias in Naturalistic Decision Making
Traditional decision-making models often depict the decision-maker as a rational actor, methodically choosing the best option from a set of alternatives based on a clear evaluation of available information. However, professionals in high-stakes fields such as crisis intervention, law enforcement, firefighting, emergency medical services, and healthcare tend to operate differently under pressure.
Faced with complex, rapidly evolving situations and limited information, these individuals draw upon their past experiences and the knowledge gained from them to make decisions. This process, known as recognition-primed decision-making (RPD), falls under the broader category of naturalistic decision-making studied by cognitive psychologists. RPD leverages our associative memory, wherein recalling one memory triggers related memories, facilitating a decision-making process that is more intuitive and experience-based.
This method, however, is not without its vulnerabilities. The reliance on associative memory and pattern recognition in RPD makes it particularly susceptible to cognitive biases. These biases can influence decision-making, sometimes leading to errors or suboptimal outcomes by affecting how past experiences are recalled and applied to current situations (hover over each arrow):
Input
Processing
Output
Response
The implications of these considerations reach far beyond conventional approaches to analyze and understand the impact of cognitive bias on decision-making, which are often confined to the specificity of a given situation.
By expanding the temporal perspective of RPD to encompass the ways in which we feed our associative memory, we deepen our comprehension of cognitive biases’ effects. This broader view not only enhances our understanding but also unveils strategic points of intervention by harnessing the impact of cognitive biases on the decision making of others.
raditional decision-making models often presuppose a rational actor who consciously selects from a limited set of options. However, in high-pressure environments—such as those encountered by crisis intervention professionals, police officers, firefighters, and healthcare providers—decision-making follows a distinct path. Faced with complex, dynamic situations and incomplete information, these individuals draw upon their associative memory, utilizing past experiences and related knowledge to guide their actions. This process, known as recognition-primed decision-making (RPD), inherently depends on the individual’s past, making it particularly vulnerable to cognitive biases.
Long before any specific decision-making event occurs, professionals in these fields develop their associative memory through socialization, education, and training, all of which are influenced by cognitive biases. These biases affect not only the perception, interpretation, and processing of information during the lead-up to, duration of, and reflection on decision-making events but also the incorporation of these events into their associative memory for use in future decisions. As such, the effects of cognitive bias are cumulative, influencing not only immediate decisions but also future decision-making capabilities.
This conceptual research project conducts a comprehensive review of the existing literature to uncover the nuanced interplay between cognitive bias, associative memory, and RPD. It highlights critical gaps in current understanding and proposes a research agenda aimed at exploring these overlooked connections, with the goal of informing more effective decision-making processes in high-stakes environments.